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When is a “Law” not a Law? When it’s Moore’s
Joe Cecchi
Professor of Chemical and Nuclear Engineering
University of New Mexico
Professor of Chemical and Nuclear Engineering
University of New Mexico
In 1965, Gordon
Moore, who would go on to co-found Intel, published a paper in which he observed
that from 1959 to 1965, the number of components in an integrated circuit
(a.k.a. computer chip) doubled approximately
every year. He further opined that it could go on “for at least 10 years[1].” Five years later, when
this geometrical increase was still continuing, Cal Tech professor, Carver
Mead, dubbed this forecast, “Moore’s Law.”
Predictions are
always challenging, especially when they are about the future. But Moore’s Law
has turned out to be essentially correct for more than 45 years! Was that
destiny, or a self-fulfilling prophecy? And if it’s not a law, what is it and
why does it matter? Has Moore’s Law become the de facto standard for all technological advancement as many would
have us believe?
But don’t worry. Aside
from a few gee whiz examples, this
discussion will not be about numbers. Rather it will be about a world
transformed by what is arguably the quintessence of technological achievement
and unimaginably precise manufacturing.
[1]
Gordon E. Moore, Cramming more components
onto integrated circuits, Electronics, 38,
April 19, 1965.
For the past 20
years, Joe Cecchi has been Professor of Chemical and Nuclear Engineering at UNM. After spending 15 years on the “dark side,”
(chair and dean), Joe is happy to return to teaching and research in semiconductor
manufacturing and nanotechnology. He has
authored more than 100 research publications and is an inventor on 8 patents,
but he is most proud of the 25 masters and doctoral students whose work he
supervised. Joe received his bachelor’s
degree in physics from Knox College and his masters and doctorate in physics from
Harvard University. Later in life, he
also earned an MBA from UNM. Joe’s research
career started about the same time as Moore’s Law, and it has certainly made
for “living in interesting times.”
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